LINCOLN, Neb. (DTN) -- Reports the Trump administration could be set to double the biofuels volume of small-refinery exemptions from the Renewable Fuel Standard have farm and biofuels groups concerned about the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's direction on the RFS.

At the end of last week, a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis said the EPA could issue SREs for 2025 exceeding 1.8 billion renewable identification numbers, or RINs, which is believed to be nearly double the agency's view of how many exemptions it may grant. That is based exemptions covering about 13.7 billion gallons of diesel and gasoline.

In March 2026, the EPA projected as a baseline 991 million biofuel gallons that could be exempted for 2023-2025.

At the end of last week, EPA announced plans to issue decisions on all pending exemption requests for 2025 by the end of the month.

In addition, the agency said it would extend the 2025 RFS compliance deadline for all obligated parties from its current Sept. 1, 2026, deadline.

Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association, told DTN his group was hopeful the rumors 'would prove to be false.'

"We encourage EPA to clear the air as soon as possible," he said in a statement.

"This gossip has already negatively impacted the marketplace, with RIN prices collapsing in recent days and destabilization in the physical markets. Granting an amount of SREs that is far above the amount projected by EPA would not only undermine the growth and progress the renewable fuels industry has experienced this year, but it would also be inconsistent with the Trump administration's commitment to enforcing the highest-ever RVOs and providing a boost to America's farmers and renewable fuel producers."

The price of conventional D6 RINs, for example, has fallen to its lowest level since April, according to Reuters.

SOYBEAN GROWERS CONCERNED

The American Soybean Association said in a news release it was "sounding the alarm" over reports that SREs for 2025 "could far exceed previous government projections, delivering a major blow to domestic biofuel demand when U.S. soybean farmers can least afford it."

The 1.8 billion RINs estimate is based on a new methodology under development by the EPA for the exemptions.

"Such a massive volume of RFS compliance exemptions would be nearly double what the Environmental Protection Agency had assumed when it published the final 2026-2027 renewable volume obligation rule," the ASA said this week.

The final biofuel blending rule published earlier this year included the largest-ever increases in biofuels volumes.

In a June 2025 proposed rule, the EPA said it was still trying to decide how it would evaluate SRE petitions.

"We have yet to take further action on these petitions (pending petitions) and are still determining how we will evaluate and decide those petitions, which would then inform how we would evaluate and decide any SRE petitions received for 2026 and 2027," the agency said in the proposal.

EPA PROJECTIONS

The agency then provided a projection of how many small refineries may qualify for SREs, saying a "potential range" of exempted volumes from SREs could be zero to 18 billion gallons.

"If EPA approves small-refinery exemption petitions at levels that significantly exceed EPA's earlier assumptions embodied in current biofuel blending rules, the result will be long-term damage that effectively undercuts the positive actions taken by the Trump administration," the ASA said.

The group representing U.S. soybean farmers said such an increase in the gallons waived by SREs "could eliminate around 500 million gallons of biomass-based diesel demand" and cost U.S. soybean farmers about $1 billion in lost revenue.

"At a time when soybean farmers are already struggling to support our farms, we cannot afford for the rug to be pulled out from under one of our most important sources of domestic demand," said ASA Vice President Dave Walton, a soybean farmer from Iowa.

"The Trump administration has been tirelessly supporting policies that expand markets for biofuels made from U.S. soybeans, and we cannot reverse course just as the biofuel industry is beginning to realize the benefits."

The ASA called on the administration to "reject any proposal that seeks to broaden the formula" used to determine refinery exemptions from RFS blending obligations "in a way that would hurt farmers and erase demand for biofuels."

Todd Neeley can be reached at todd.neeley@dtn.com

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